Impact of COVID-19 on selected essential public health services – lessons learned from a retrospective record review in the Free State, South Africa (preprint)

Background In an attempt to discern lessons to improve future pandemic responses, this study measured the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on essential public health services (EPHSs) related to primary health care (PHC) and outpatient department (OPD) utilisation, antiretroviral treatment (ART) commencement, drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) confirmation and treatment commencement, and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) coverage, in the Free State province of South Africa during January 2019 to March 2021. Methods A pre-post study design comparing EPHS performance between 2019 and 2020/21 was employed. Routinely collected data were analysed. An interrupted time series analysis was used to measure changes in service use and outcomes from January 2019 to March 2021. Median changes were compared using Wilcoxon sign ranked tests. A 5% statistical significance level was considered Results Over the study period, the median values for the annual number of PHC visits was 1.8, 55.3% for unreferred OPD visits, 69.4% for ART commencement, 95.1% and 18.7% for DS-TB confirmation and treatment commencement respectively, and 93.7% for BCG coverage. While BCG coverage increased by 5.85% (p=0.0101), declines were observed in PHC utilisation (10.53%; p=0.0010), unreferred OPD visits (12.05%; p=0.0006), ART commencement (9.53%; p=0.0174), and DS-TB confirmation (5.24%; p≥0.050) and treatment commencement (3.80%; p≥0.050). Given the importance of PHC in addressing a new pandemic, along with the existing HIV and TB epidemics – as well as the entire quadruple burden of disease – in South Africa, the finding that the PHC utilisation rate statistically significantly decreased in the Free State post-COVID-19 commencement is particularly concerning. Conclusions The lessons learned from this retrospective review attest to a measure of resilience in EPHS delivery in the Free State in as far as a significant hike in BCG vaccination over the study period, 2019-2020/21 was observed. As evidenced by a declines in PHC service utilisation, the decreased numbers of new patients commencing ART and lower confirmed DS-TB case and DS-TB treatment commencement rates, we also learned that EPHS delivery in the province was fragile.

COVID-19 In-Hospital Mortality in South Africa: The Intersection of Communicable and Non-Communicable Chronic Diseases in a High HIV Prevalence Setting (preprint)

Background: The interaction between COVID-19, non-communicable diseases, and chronic infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis (TB) are unclear, particularly in low- and middle-income countries in Africa. We investigated this interaction using a nationally representative hospital surveillance system for laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions in South Africa.Methods: Using DATCOV data, we describe the demographic characteristics, clinical features, and in-hospital mortality among individuals admitted to public and private hospitals with COVID-19 during 5 March to 11 August 2020. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the role of HIV-status and underlying comorbidities on in-hospital COVID-19 mortality.Findings: Hospital admissions peaked at 1,560 admissions per day, in late July. Among the 41,877 individuals admitted with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, 7,662 (18.3%) died. Comorbidities were documented in 27,555 (65.8%) individuals, most commonly observed were hypertension (36.8%), diabetes (29.6%), obesity (19.7%), and HIV (8.7%); TB was reported in 0.7% of individuals. Increased risk of in-hospital mortality was associated with HIV and TB, as well as other described risk factors for COVID-19, such as increasing age, male sex, non-White race (Black, mixed and Indian race), chronic underlying conditions particularly hypertension, diabetes and obesity. In addition, HIV-infected individuals with immunosuppression had increased risk of mortality (adjusted odds ratio 2.2; 95% confidence interval 1.6-3.1). Among HIV-infected individuals, the prevalence of other comorbidities associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes was 39.9%. The effect of multiple comorbidities on mortality was similar in HIV-infected and -uninfected individuals.Interpretation: These data provide a better understanding of the interaction of non-communicable diseases, chronic infectious diseases like HIV and TB and COVID-19. Increasing age and presence of chronic underlying comorbidities (particularly hypertension and diabetes) are important additional factors associated with COVID-19 mortality in a middle-income African setting and are common among HIV-infected individuals. HIV- and TB-infected individuals, particularly those with additional comorbidities, would benefit from COVID-19 prevention programmes, as well as early referral and treatment.Funding Statement: DATCOV is funded by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD) and the South African National Government. No additional funding was obtained towards the completion of this analysis and the development of this manuscript.Declaration of Interests: The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest.Ethics Approval Statement: The Human Research Ethics Committee (Medical), University of the Witwatersrand, approved the project protocol as part of a national surveillance program (M160667). This activity was reviewed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy. All personal identifying information was de-linked for our analysis and stored in a secure server.